In 60 seconds: A new DHL Globalization Tracker, produced with NYU Stern and released on 7 October 2026, finds that global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year in the past 15 years, excluding the post-Covid rebound. The main driver isn’t tariff relief. It’s the worldwide build-out of AI infrastructure. For exporters, the headline is reassuring, but the details show where growth is concentrated and where it is not.
⚡ Quick Facts
- Report: DHL Globalization Tracker (with NYU Stern), released 7 October 2026 and based on 30+ million data points
- Headline finding: H1 2026 goods trade growth was the fastest of any half-year in 15 years, excluding the Covid rebound
- Main driver: Trade in AI-enabling goods (semiconductors, data-transmission equipment) accounted for 76% of goods trade growth in Q1 2026, up from 42% across 2025
- Outlook: Goods trade forecast to grow about 3.4% a year through 2029, versus 2.7% over the previous decade
- Fastest-growing regions (Jan–May 2026 trade value): East Asia & Pacific +24%, Europe +12%, Sub-Saharan Africa +11%
What Happened?
DHL and NYU Stern’s latest tracker, the first edition under the new “Globalization Tracker” name, reports that world trade has kept expanding through the highest US tariffs in decades and through the Iran war. The authors attribute most of the momentum to AI: demand for chips, networking gear and other equipment needed to build data centres has pulled trade volumes up sharply.
The tracker also reports a record globalization level of 25.8% in 2025, measured across flows of trade, capital, information and people. On the forward view, it projects average goods trade growth of 3.4% a year through 2029, and notes that this outlook is stronger than forecasts made before the tariff increases and the Iran war.
Why It Matters
Two findings stand out for anyone selling across borders.
First, tariffs hurt less than the headlines suggested. The report points out that the US accounts for only about 13% of world imports, and that roughly half of US imports were exempt from the tariff increases as of August 2026. Most countries also chose not to retaliate broadly. Instead, many pushed to open alternative markets through new trade agreements. For exporters, that is a useful signal: diversification is working as a response to tariff pressure.
Second, the damage from the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz closure was real but concentrated. Trade value fell 37% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the UAE in the first five months of 2026 compared with a year earlier, while the global picture stayed strong. Exporters tied to Gulf routes felt it; most others did not.
🌍 Impact on Indian and Emerging-Market Exporters
- Growth is strongest in intra-Asian trade: East Asia & Pacific’s share of trade staying within the region rose from 57% to 60%. Exporters supplying Asian manufacturers and food-processing hubs are well placed.
- Europe’s +12% and Sub-Saharan Africa’s +11% suggest demand outside the US is healthy. Markets that many small exporters under-serve are growing faster than the US-focused conversation implies.
- AI-linked goods dominate the growth story. Agri and food exporters are not the main beneficiaries, so don’t assume the 15-year-high headline applies evenly to your product category; check your own category’s trade data.
- Gulf-bound shipments carry elevated route and payment risk. Build in contingency on freight, insurance and buyer payment terms.
🛒 Impact on Global Buyers
- Strong overall trade volumes mean competition for shipping capacity and supplier allocation can tighten, particularly for goods tied to AI infrastructure.
- The report’s resilience advice cuts against wholesale supply-chain relocation: it recommends balancing resilience with the benefits of global reach, rather than retreating from international sourcing.
- Direct US–China trade has dropped to 1.6% of world trade from a 3.5% peak in 2015, yet indirect reliance on China fell only slightly through 2024 as Chinese components flow through third countries. Buyers verifying origin should look at inputs, not just the final exporting country.
Opportunities and Risks
Opportunity: New trade agreements are being signed at pace as countries hedge against tariffs. Exporters who track which markets just gained preferential access can move early, before competitors reprice.
Risk: Aggregate numbers can mislead. Some recent trade data is distorted by front-loading ahead of tariff deadlines: Canada’s exports to the US jumped 8.1% in August before new 50% US duties took effect, and analysts warn this may reverse. Also note that the tracker is commissioned by DHL, a logistics company that benefits from a narrative of strong trade, so treat it as one informed view rather than a neutral final word.
Practical Takeaway
Don’t plan around the global headline; plan around your own corridor. Check where your product’s demand is actually growing (intra-Asia, Europe and Africa are all outpacing the US), stress-test any Gulf-dependent shipments, and use this moment to line up at least one new market before your next contract cycle. The report’s core message is that companies pulling back from global markets risk losing ground to competitors who stay engaged.
Trade Research Desk, Seabridge Exports
Published: 8 October 2026
Last Updated: 8 October 2026. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, customs, or trade advisory. Please consult your CHA or trade consultant before acting on any export/import decision.